Last month marked the two-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. Since February 2022, more than six-and-a-half million Ukrainians fled while Russian casualties amounted to over a quarter million. The Russians have conquered two major cities since May 2023, while the Ukrainians disabled a third of Russia’s warships. Neither side wants to back down and the rest of the world is looking to work around the war.
In the Czech Republic, French president discusses help for Ukraine
On March 5, French President Emmanuel Macron increased aid for Ukraine in a state visit to the Czech Republic. Macron signed a partnership action plan with the Czech Prime Minister and met with the Czech President Petr Pavel. The action plan calls for France to financially contribute to a Czech initiative to send more ammunition to Ukraine. The French-Czech meeting is the latest effort by western European states to continue the rally to bolster Ukrainian defense in a war with low morale and no end in sight.
“We agree that the only option for us is to continue supporting Ukraine,” Pavel told the Associated Press. “We’ve agreed that Europe has to play a bigger role in helping Ukraine.”
Macron and Pavel called upon other European allies to increase aid efforts as Ukrainian confidence in Western backing runs low and their ammunition stockpiles run even lower. Both France and the Czech Republic hold high stakes in the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war. The war concerns the Czech Republic, a divorcee in the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, at least in part because of the country’s geographical vicinity to the war zone and ties to a communist past. As a regional power, France is naturally concerned with stability and the preservation of democracy within Europe.
In addition to providing ammunition supplies, the two leaders discussed plans to train Ukrainian soldiers and other indirect support for Ukraine. Weeks before his visit to the Czech Republic, Macron floated the idea of employing European troops to Ukraine — which drew controversy within European allies and backlash from Russia. The Slovak Prime Minister insinuated, without naming France, that some European countries may send troops to Ukraine “on a bilateral basis.”
France’s recent commitment to Ukraine comes after France came under fire from Germany for under-contributing to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, France only committed 0.1 percent of their gross domestic product to aid Ukraine, compared to Britain’s 0.5% and Germany’s 0.6%.
“Russia must not win the war,” Macron told the Associated Press in Prague. “We must all be aware that this war affects us all.”
In Germany, officials handle the fallout of a leaked call
On March 1, the Russian state media Russia Today leaked a confidential conference call among top officials in the German air force. The leaked call includes discussions of supplying Ukraine with German missiles, bombing a bridge that connects Russia to Crimea, and sensitive details of the British and French operations in Ukraine.
The German defense ministry confirmed that the call did occur and attributed the leak to “individual error” rather than weakness in the German intelligence system. The Germans would have others believe that the call was intercepted by Russian intelligence through an insecure line dialed in from Singapore, as one of the officers on call was attending the Singapore Airshow at the time.
“Trust in Germany is unbroken,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Washington Post. “Everyone knows about the danger of such wiretapping attacks and knows that no one can offer 100 percent protection.”
The leak comes at a sensitive time for Germany as the country’s leadership deliberates on how to coordinate with other European allies to help Ukraine. Germany is the European country that has been providing the most aid to Ukraine. Over the past two years, it has contributed 22 billion euros, with an additional 30 more billion to come to ensure that Ukraine can fend off Russia’s prolonged aggression without directly provoking Russia into war with the rest of Europe.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to send long-range missiles to Ukraine and strongly opposed plans for any European state to send ground troops to the region. The Germany air force officials discussing the deployment of British and French missiles points to both a divergence within the German government and between major European allies.
“Here we have to find out whether the Bundeswehr [the German military] is doing this on its own initiative,” a Kremlin spokesperson told Reuters. “Then the question is: how controllable is the Bundeswehr and how much does Scholz control the situation?”
Experts believe that Russia leaked the phone call to further sow discord into the already-fractured European alliance and intimidate Scholz into not sending German missiles. Last year, Scholz was pressured into dispatching Leopard 2 tanks — one of Germany’s most advanced — to Ukraine after Americans supplied Ukraine with their tanks.
“We will not send European soldiers to Ukraine,” Scholz responded to Macron’s call to send troops to Ukraine. “We don’t want a war between Russia and NATO. And we will do all we can to prevent it.”
In China, special envoy embarks on a dicey trip to mediate talks in Europe
On March 4, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, landed in Belgium to commence a round of diplomatic talks with European leaders. The Chinese special envoy has met with Swiss officials and is expected to meet with leaders from France, Germany and Poland in the next week.
The last time China sent diplomats to Europe was in May of last year, when the war seemed to be going in Ukraine’s favor. The outlook on the war has changed since then. The enthusiasm for the Ukrainian counteroffensive was not effective and the war turned into a stalemate on the front lines. With American aid packages stalled in Congress and European allies scrambling to find unity in their support for Ukraine, experts believe China sees this as a new opportunity to mediate talks between Europe, Ukraine and Russia on stopping a war with no end in sight.
“China believes that geopolitical landscape is changing,” Yurii Poita, the head of the Asia-Pacific section at a Ukrainian think tank, the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, told the South China Morning Post. “And that so-called peace negotiations are more likely.”
Western officials do not have high expectations for the talks. An anonymous diplomat believes the Chinese visit is “hastily arranged” and may not make much progress. Experts believe that China’s strong stance on the Israel-Hamas war and lack of commitment on doing the same for the Russia-Ukraine war is not conducive to cooperation.
The talks seemed to have not gone very well thus far. Europeans by and large see China as siding with Russia, despite China’s proclaimed neutrality on the war. The Chinese envoy believes talks about Ukraine’s territories can only take place after Europeans stop supplying Ukraine with arms and aid. Both sides also seem to disagree on sanctioning Chinese companies with ties to Russian industries.
European states would expect China to make more credible commitments to a neutral mediation, including asking Russia to return Ukrainian children and protect Ukrainian nuclear power plants under Russian occupation. Despite European skepticism toward China, China remains the strongest candidate to mediate any potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, given its geographical detachment from the European continent, historic ties to Russia and friendly relations with Ukraine.
The Chinese believe the two sides will move toward an early cease-fire and will “travel intensively to mediate and build consensus among relevant parties.”
“The tides of war have been changing, and that puts Ukraine under more pressure with regards to outreach to players that could have an impact or an influence such as China,” Roderick Kefferputz, an expert on Sino-Russian relations and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the South China Morning Post. “At the same time, it makes China a lot more comfortable with this situation. Because [Russia] is doing better than it was not too long ago.”
Despite Europeans pooling together aid for Ukraine and China setting up negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, American involvement still bears an overwhelming influence on the war. A $60 billion aid package — almost double Germany’s commitment — is currently stuck in the House of Representative with Republican politicians and Republican-friendly figures like Elon Musk advocating to stop funding Ukraine.
Contact Samson Tu at [email protected].
