The 2008 financial crisis revealed cracks in the economies of many European nations. The countries may not have known of the problems or did not feel urgency to address them prior to the collapse, but circumstances eventually rendered the problems unavoidable. As weaker European economies suffered in 2008 and forced the depreciation of the Euro, countries less affected by the crisis, including the Netherlands and Finland, began questioning their allegiance to the single European currency. Now, however, six years removed from the economic upheaval, the poorer countries are joining the stronger ones in protest of the eurozone. Their response is an overreaction to a problem that should not be blamed on a continental monetary system.
Italy was crushed by the collapse. Though many Italian politicians had been aware of the instability of their fiscal policies leading up to the recession — government debt was higher than GDP in 2008 — their policies remained unaltered until the country’s well-being depended on a restructuring. Other European nations were faced with similar urgency. Yet, in spite of the possible benefits the Euro has provided Italy in aiding recovery in recent years, the MoVimento 5 Stelle and Lega Nord parties, which comprise about 20 percent of Italy’s parliament, claim that leaving the Euro is in the nation’s best interest.
The Euro and the European Union became scapegoats on which blame was projected for political and economic difficulties. A new study attempts to reverse this trend. The study found that the European Union and the Euro have benefitted most of its members, Greece being the lone exception. In explaining this, the researchers simulated time series data using macroeconomic statistics from countries that have not joined the European Union. For instance, they estimated that if Britain had not entered the European Union, its economy would resemble a weighted blend of 91 percent New Zealand and 9 percent Argentina. Richer countries like Finland and poorer ones like Portugal have, to varying degrees of success, benefited from EU membership. Even countries that have not adopted the Euro but are EU members have benefited. Britain has seen a 25 percent jump in its GDP since joining the European Union.
This analysis is easy to criticize, and many European politicians certainly have, but it is notable for exposing European misunderstanding of the European Union and the Euro. The figures presented in the study may not prevent Eurosceptics from arguing for an exit from the Euro and the European Union, but they do begin to provide a more realistic picture of the complex situation at hand.
A version of this article appeared in the Thursday, April 17 print edition. Vittorio Bisin is a staff columnist. Vittorio’s Razor is published every Thursday.Email him at [email protected].