The NFL season is about halfway through, but many fans are still uncertain about what to expect from their favorite teams. This season, to be candid, has been a palatable blend of the unexpected and the perennially obvious. We saw the Indianapolis Colts, a team that emerged from one of the worst seasons in franchise history, fight to a 5-3 record under the leadership of a rookie quarterback and a cancer-stricken head coach. We watched Peyton Manning, who was expected to struggle in his recovery from four neck surgeries this summer, rally the Denver Broncos to the top of the American Football Conference West division.

We are even starting to fear the Atlanta Falcons, an always dangerous but commonly overlooked squad, as they stand alone as the league’s only unbeaten team. Meanwhile, past AFC powerhouses like the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints are still struggling to find some traction and locate their identities. With all that said, some things never change. Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Mark Sanchez are still on the hot seat. The Jaguars are still terrible. And of course, Tim Tebow is still making headlines for everthing except his performance. Among the muck and confusion, I’m here to offer some clarity as to how the rest of the season may play out.

First, it is important to distinguish the surprisingly good teams from the legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts may have winning records and tons of media attention, but that is only because they’re unexpectedly above average; don’t expect either team to do anything significant this postseason.

Looking past the pretenders, the picture is muddled. Teams like the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears lead their divisions in the standings, and all have respected reputations around the league. However, don’t be fooled by their performance so far. These teams lack either post-season leadership or the ability to perform well under pressure; both of these factors are necessary to pull away with a Super Bowl ring. This season’s Ravens squad is no different from the one that botched an opportunity to eliminate New England last year.

We should, however, focus our attention on teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, 49ers, Packers and Falcons. While I consider all of these teams to be legitimate contenders because of their proven mixture of experience, leadership and poise, I think the Broncos will be Super Bowl Champions.

Manning is playing like he has something to prove, and the running game continues to supplement his efforts and reinforce the Denver offense. The Broncos also have a legitimate pass rush and a relatively easy schedule that may help the team acquire home field advantage in the playoffs. The National Football Conference contender may well be the Atlanta Falcons or even the Giants or Packers. But at the end of the day, Manning’s insatiable desire to win another Super Bowl will fuel Denver to victory.

Around the league, we can expect Andy Reid to be fired and Michael Vick to lose his place as an NFL starting quarterback, barring a major turnaround from the Eagles. Tony Romo will likely keep his job, but Dallas will probably try to make serious acquisitions to boost their squad back into relevance. The Jets will have to act on Sanchez’s failures and Rex Ryan’s inadequacy; I won’t try to predict the specific actions of such an
unpredictable franchise. Despite all the uncertainty, one thing will always remain true.Regardless of the chaos and mid-season fanfare, the team with the right combination of leadership, experience and desire will win the Super Bowl. This season, I think it is Denver’s time.

A version of this article appeared in the Thursday, Nov. 8 print edition. Nishaad Ruparel is a contributing writer. Email her at [email protected].