Analysts agree that North Korea’s third nuclear test will prove to be one of the more humiliating events in the history of modern Chinese foreign policy. Following the emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi affirmed that China was “strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed” to North Korea’s actions and called on the country to “stop any rhetoric or acts that could worsen situations and return to the right course of dialogue and consultation as soon as possible.” Although Mr. Yang’s statement exhibits the growing exasperation felt by Chinese officials toward their reclusive neighbor and its belligerent behavior, it does nothing to herald the arrival of a necessary, meaningful reaction. China has been far too silent, and the fear of the presumed byproducts of the collapse of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea do not justify prolonging the country’s muteness.

A fear of instability is at the root of China’s silence following the recent events in North Korea. The hermit kingdom acts as a buffer to American interests in South Korea and its collapse threatens to destabilize parts of the northeast corner of China as an untold number of refugees flood the border. This poses a threat to the resources and security of the region, and the huge influx of North Koreans could lead to agitation for independence reminiscent of Tibet. On these grounds, China has offered North Korea diplomatic cover and large amounts of monetary and food aid. Furthermore, China has promised to provide its paranoid neighbor with security should it choose to abandon its nuclear program — an offer not yet accepted.

North Korea’s behavior has not changed and is a cause for instability and an increased American presence in Asia. President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address this year was marked with a vow to boost missile-defense capabilities in Asia and “lead the world in taking firm action in response to [North Korean] threats” — news that, needless to say, was not well received in Beijing. China’s dedication to peace in East Asia should encourage it to adjust the lens through which it views its neighbor. The 2010 attack on Yeonpyeong Island, which killed four South Korean citizens, in addition to recent, blunt threats against South Korea and the United States, should be evidence enough of North Korea’s aggression. Rather than a tool to maintain stability, North Korea is itself the cause of many of China’s woes.

Regime change in North Korea is likely. There is hope for a stable evolution of a humane regime, though it would be reckless to not prepare for the worst. The collapse of the DPRK could be sudden. Despite this ominous possibility, Beijing remains reluctant to engage in the dialogue needed to form a coherent safeguard against the inevitable. China is beginning to risk losing face in the international community as North Korea becomes a liability for the world’s emerging superpower.

A version of this article appeared in the Feb. 26 print edition. Peter Keffer is a foreign correspondent. Email him at [email protected].