NYU Law researchers found that mass shootings spurred voter turnout by up to 10% in areas closest to the incident, although candidate preference was not apparently affected. 

The November study — which used data from the Gun Violence Archive and nearly half a billion voter records from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections — aimed to determine whether communities that experience a mass shooting are more likely to support gun reform at the polls. Researchers analyzed areas within 10 miles of a recent mass shooting and found that these incidents boosted voter turnout, especially in Democratic neighborhoods, but did not skew voters’ position on candidates nor their party affiliations. 

“They’re probably not going to shift anything like, you know, congressional race or even a mayoral race,” Brennan Center researcher Kevin Morris and University of Massachusetts Amherst professor Kelsey Shoub told WSN. “But they might shift how city council races go _ it could, it could have an impact on who is elected at the really local level.”

Mass shootings are defined by the GVA as incidents in which at least four victims were shot and either injured or killed, not counting any shooter. The vast majority of mass shootings in the United States — where an average of more than one shooting occurs every day — go unrecognized by national audiences. 

Morris found that neighborhoods about half a mile from a mass shooting saw up to a 10% surge in turnout in weeks preceding an election. This spike decreased immediately in areas beyond five miles of the incidents, and dropped to zero by 10 miles out.

“The importance of talking to friends and developing a political stance around so many of these issues is really important, and that’s how we build change,” Morris told WSN. “That’s how we build power — is by translating these things that happen in our lives and our communities into pressure on candidates and politicians.”

Researchers suspected a link between proximity to mass shootings and support for gun control policy — specifically via ballot initiatives — but their results on whether the two are correlated were inconclusive. 

“Mass shootings can shift how people vote on a ballot initiative,” Morris said. “It’s easier to shift how people vote on a specific policy — a particular proposal to make gun ownership safer, restrict access to guns — than to change the party of the candidate for whom they’re voting.”

Contact Roya Statler at [email protected].